Background and aims A prospective analytic study was conducted during February 2015–February 2016, which included adult patients with SLE, according to SLICC, 2012 classification criteria. The subjects were prospectively fallowed–up every month 3, 5, 9, 12 visit and disease activity by SLEDAI and SLAM, SELENA/SLEDAI flare index and laboratory tests were assessed. The risk of flare was calculated by Pearson correlation coefficient and risk ratio (RR) with 95% CI.

Results In the study were included 102 SLE patients, 94,1% females, mean age±SD42.4±13.3 (range 20–73) years, mean disease duration±SD93.9±77.1 (range 0,1–228) months. During a 12 moths fallow–up, 55 flares were enregistered, including 11 cases of severe flares, with a SLEDAI increase from 3 to 17 points. So, the total incidence of flares was 0,53 patient/year and the incidence for severe flares was 0,10 patient/year. In order to assess the risk of flares, we have studied several potential risk factors, as shown in the table.

Conclusions the incidence of flare in a 12 months period was 53,9%, including 10,8% of severe flares. Low Hb and lymphocytopenia are at risk for flares and antiphospholipid syndrome and pulmonary involvement were the main clinical risk factors in our cohort.