Discussion
We have identified an understudied category of patients with their first episode of LN who accrue progressive renal damage despite apparent response to standard of care therapy. Specifically, roughly half of the participants in this study with a worrisome eGFR trajectory would be misleadingly classified as complete responders after 1 year of treatment based on resolution of proteinuria. These findings indicate that definitions of LN treatment response which are based on proteinuria can fail to identify many patients who continue to accrue renal damage despite treatment. To our knowledge, this work is the first to examine trajectories of early progression of CKD in LN and to de-couple this analysis from proteinuria.
We incidentally noted a subacute decline in eGFR in many patients during the 3 months leading up to their renal biopsy, which then rapidly improved to near pre-LN baseline with treatment as shown in figure 1 (note the week 0 time point). To our knowledge, this is the first published account of this phenomenon. This finding is also potentially relevant to clinical trial design, where definitions of treatment response may also be based on the preservation of eGFR assessed at the time of renal biopsy. If a patient’s eGFR is transiently reduced at the time of biopsy, then this measurement is not a true baseline eGFR, and thus not an accurate goal or metric for renal recovery.
We were not able to identify any clear predictors of early renal decline (after biopsy) based on demographics, immunological status, renal biopsy features, immunosuppressive treatment regimen or relevant comorbidities. This is at odds with traditional views of poor prognostic factors in LN such as proliferative features on biopsy, activity or chronicity indices, and race,1 though it is possible that any associations between these prognostic factors and renal outcome are present but much weaker than expected, and thus were not detected in this study given the relatively small sample size. As the vast majority of outcome studies in LN have been based on eGFR cut-offs rather than slope, these factors may still be meaningful with respect to informing which patients will go on to develop ESRD, but do not appear to consistently identify those with rapid eGFR decline early after diagnosis (that is, those with a significant loss in eGFR but not reaching ESRD) despite appropriate immunosuppressive therapy.
We acknowledge that proteinuria remains an important biomarker in current clinical practice. At the population level, proteinuria is still generally successful at risk stratifying which patients will progress to severe CKD, especially ESRD.4 5 Follow-up analyses of both the MAINTAIN Nephritis Trial16 and the Euro-Lupus Nephritis cohort17 determined that proteinuria of <700–800 mg/g after 12 months of treatment was generally predictive of a positive long-term renal outcome, defined as a serum creatinine of ≤1.0 mg/dL after 7 years in these studies. The sensitivity and specificity of this proteinuria threshold in predicting a positive long-term outcome were 70%–80% in both cohorts. While this demonstrates the broad prognostic ability of proteinuria, it also indicates that there were a significant portion of patients for whom reduced proteinuria did not portend long-term renal protection or vice versa. This is conceptually consistent with the results of our work and likewise highlights the limitation of proteinuria as a metric of treatment success for any given individual. It is additionally worth noting that a serum creatinine of 1.0 mg/dL would represent a 20%–30% loss of eGFR for most young women who start with an eGFR of >100 pre-LN, as in the patients in this study.
Our work complements prior studies which used protocol kidney biopsies in LN, which have shown that proteinuria can be absent in the presence of active renal histology (or vice versa). Wakasugi et al performed renal biopsies on nearly 200 patients with lupus with and without clinical renal involvement, which was defined as proteinuria >400 mg/g, active urinary sediment, and/or eGFR <67 mL/min/1.73 m2 in their analysis.6 They discovered that up to 20% of cases of class III, IV and V LN diagnosed on biopsy were entirely clinically silent based on the criteria above. More recently, De Rosa et al performed per protocol renal biopsies on a subset of patients with LN who had been in renal remission for at least 12 months.9 Persistent histological activity was present in 44% of these participants (despite resolution of proteinuria), and the activity index on biopsy could accurately predict which participants would experience a renal flare when immunosuppression was tapered. Malvar et al similarly identified a discordance between clinical and histological features in patients with proliferative LN: one-third of patients with clinical response had persistently high histological activity, and roughly two-thirds of patients in histological remission would still be considered clinically active based on the presence of proteinuria.8
CKD progression in patients with proteinuric response may be secondary to persistent intrarenal inflammation,8 9 profibrotic processes18 or other mechanisms not yet discovered. We speculate that specific urinary proteins that correlate with intrarenal inflammation or active fibrosis–rather than the total amount of protein in the urine–could potentially be superior predictors of the development of CKD in LN.19 20 Urine proteomic biomarkers of intrarenal matrix remodelling and inflammation can successfully detect early CKD in various other nephropathies and predict risk of CKD progression in diabetic nephropathy.21–23 Good et al identified 273 urinary peptides which characterise individuals with CKD secondary to various aetiologies (including SLE in roughly 10% of participants).24 This multidimensional biomarker, called CKD273, was then validated for the diagnosis of CKD (blinded to aetiology) in two independent cohorts24 25 and has been found to be superior to urinary albumin in predicting early and/or progressive CKD in diabetes mellitus in multiple follow-up studies.21–23 The discovery of a similar biomarker panel in LN could (1) guide early identification and personalised treatment of patients at high risk of progressive CKD despite immunosuppression, and (2) identify potential novel targets in the treatment of LN overall.
Several agents which are effective at slowing eGFR decline are already available and might prove particularly useful in high-risk patients with LN. It has already been demonstrated that belimumab can slow eGFR decline in patients with LN as compared with standard therapy alone.26 27 It was also recently shown that dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, reduces the composite risk of sustained eGFR decline, ESRD, or death from a renal or cardiovascular cause in a general population with CKD, although individuals with LN were excluded.28 Specific treatments for APOL1-associated renal disease are not yet available, though may be in the near future.29 Genetic variants in APOL1 have been associated with an increased risk of CKD in those with African ancestry, both in the general population and among those with LN,30 31 and targeted therapeutics along these lines might be of particular benefit for many black patients with LN.
There are several limitations to this study. This was a single-centre study with a relatively small sample size, though we intentionally focused only on patients diagnosed with their first episode of LN so as to minimise confounding factors and more clearly identify patterns in eGFR trajectory. This small sample size may have limited the ability to detect differences in features of interest (eg, demographics, biopsy features) between eGFR trajectory groups. We were also unable to assess genetic risk factors such as APOL1 (see above). APOL1 genotyping has been performed on a subset of African-American patients in the Hopkins Lupus Cohort,32 but unfortunately these data were only available in two of the participants in the eGFR decline group, and thus we could not pursue a meaningful investigation into this factor.
Nevertheless, we believe that this work demonstrates that traditional metrics of renal response (namely proteinuria) may be falsely reassuring for certain individual patients. Our results also indicate that such patients may be relatively common, with one-third of proteinuric responders developing progressive renal decline in this cohort. Overall, these results suggest that better definitions and biomarkers of renal response in LN are needed to improve long-term renal outcomes and trial design.