Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models for any organ damage
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable | HR (95% CI) | p Value | HR (95% CI) | p Value | HR (95% CI) | p Value |
| Age at cohort entry | 1.032 (1.026 to 1.038) | <0.001 | 1.033 (1.027 to 1.039) | <0.001 | 1.032 (1.026 to 1.038) | <0.001 |
| Sex (female vs male) | 1.071 (0.833 to 1.377) | 0.592 | 1.089 (0.847 to 1.400) | 0.508 | 1.080 (0.840 to 1.388) | 0.550 |
| Race | ||||||
| Black (vs White) | 1.113 (0. 963 to 1.286) | 0.149 | 1.109 (0.960 to 1.282) | 0.161 | 1.132 (0.980 to 1.307) | 0.091 |
| Asian (vs White) | 0.894 (0.541 to 1.476) | 0.661 | 0. 897 (0.543 to 1.482) | 0.672 | 0.908 (0.550 to 1.499) | 0.705 |
| Other (vs White) | 0.879 (0.559 to 1.382) | 0.576 | 0.870 (0.553 to 1.368) | 0.545 | 0.882 (0.561 to 1.387) | 0.587 |
| Year of SLE diagnosis | 0.992 (0.984 to 1.000) | 0.044 | 0.991 (0.983 to 0.998) | 0.018 | 0.989 (0.981 to 0.997) | 0.005 |
| SDI at cohort entry | 1.064 (1.023 to 1.106) | 0.002 | 1.064 (1.024 to 1.107) | 0.002 | 1.064 (1.023 to 1.107) | 0.002 |
| SELENA-SLEDAI score during follow-up (≥6 vs <6) | 1.398 (1.170 to 1.670) | <0.001 | 1.370 (1.146 to 1.638) | <0.001 | 1.374 (1.149 to 1.642) | <0.001 |
| Immunosuppressant use during follow-up (yes vs no) | 1.225 (1.046 to 1.434) | 0.012 | 1.209 (1.032 to 1.417) | 0.019 | 1.246 (1.068 to 1.455) | 0.005 |
| Antimalarial use during follow-up (yes vs no) | 0.926 (0.801 to 1.071) | 0.299 | 0.958 (0.827 to 1.109) | 0.566 | 0.964 (0.832 to 1.116) | 0.623 |
| Mean prior prednisone dose, mg/day* | ||||||
| (≥7.5 vs <7.5) | 1.742 (1.489 to 2.039) | <0.001 | NA | NA | ||
| (≥7.5–<15 vs <7.5) | NA | 1.537 (1.284 to 1.840) | <0.001 | NA | ||
| (≥15–<20 vs <7.5) | NA | 1.799 (1.350 to 2.399) | <0.001 | NA | <0.001 | |
| (≥20 vs <7.5) | NA | 2.514 (1.977 to 3.196) | <0.001 | NA | ||
| 1 mg/day | NA | NA | 1.028 (1.022 to 1.035) | |||
*We calculated the time-varying predictor ‘mean prior prednisone dose’ as the average prednisone dose during prior cohort follow-up.
NA, not applicable; SDI, Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index; SELENA-SLEDAI, Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment version of the SLE Disease Activity Index; SLE, systemic lupus erythematosus.