Summary of univariate and multivariate logistical models and diagnostic accuracy of identifying NCD*
| Serum biomarkers | MU1 | MU2 | MU3 | MU4 | MU5 | MM1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | −4.11±1.96 | −2.61±0.96 | −4.90±2.84 | −1.41±0.39 | −2.60±1.03 | 0.02±0.31 |
| S100A8/9 | 0.40±0.29 | 0.62±0.43 | ||||
| S100B | 0.41±0.28 | 1.69±1.16 | ||||
| NGAL | 0.78±0.57 | −0.94±0.68 | ||||
| aNR2-AB | −0.81±0.52 | 3.35±1.11 | ||||
| aP-AB | 2.03±1.10 | 1.82±0.82 | ||||
| AUC (95% CI) in % | 69.0 (53.8 to 84.3) | 62.8 (46.0 to 79.7) | 56.5 (39.1 to 74.0) | 62.5 (47.9 to 77.0) | 70.3 (59.0 to 81.6) | 83.4 (73.3 to 93.5) |
| p Value† | 0.023 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.004 | Reference |
| Cut-off value‡ | S100A8/9>850 | S100B>30 | NGAL>240 | aNR2-AB<1 | aP-AB≥1 | >11§ |
| Sensitivity (%) | 85.7 | 57.1 | 26.7 | 86.7 | 86.7 | 100.0 |
| Specificity (%) | 51.0 | 70.2 | 92.0 | 51.0 | 54.0 | 76 |
*A MU model uses one SBM as the single predictor in the logistical model and the MM1 uses all listed predictors in the model.
†p Value is used to compare AUCs between a MU model and MM1 model using non-parametric Mann-Whitney U tests.
‡The cut-off is corresponded to a ‘best’ pair of sensitivity and specificity which the average is the largest among all possible pairs on the receiver operating characteristic curve.
§The value represents a cut-off of propensity score from the multivariate logistical model MM1. The propensity score in this model is calculated in two steps. In step 1, a raw score or r-score is calculated using the r-score=0.62×S100A8+15+1.7×S100B−0.9×NGAL +3.4×NR2+1.8×Ribosomal-P+0.8×Ds-DNA +0.02. In the next step, the r-score is converted into the propensity score or p-score using p-score=100×exp(r-score)/(1+exp(r-score)).
aP-AB, antiribosomal P antibodies; AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; NGAL, neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin; aNR2-AB, antibodies to NR2 glutamate receptor.