Table 5

Estimated 10-year risk of a hard cardiovascular event* based on the formulas from the Hopkins Lupus Cohort and the ACC/AHA model, given various risk factors

Traditional risk factors†SLE-related risk factorsEstimated 10-year risk*
SexAgeSBPCholHDLMean SLEDAILow C3Lupus anticoagulantHopkins Lupus Cohort (% risk, 95% CI)ACC/AHA‡
(% risk)
Low risk from traditional risk factors, no SLE risk factors
F50120150500NoNo 2.5 (1.3 to 3.6)0.8
M50120150500NoNo 3.1 (1.0 to 5.2)2.1
F70120150500NoNo 3.8 (1.5 to 6.2)7.9
M70120150500NoNo 4.8 (1.0 to 8.5)14.1
Moderate risk from traditional risk factors, no SLE risk factors
F50145240400NoNo5.7 (2.3 to 9.0)3.0
M50145240400NoNo7.1 (1.9 to 12.1)7.0
F70145240400NoNo8.9 (2.7 to 14.7)13.4
M70145240400NoNo11.0 (1.9 to 19.3)26.2
Low risk from traditional risk factors, SLE risk factors
F50120150503YesYes 12.0 (5.3 to 18.1)0.8
M50120150503YesYes 14.8 (4.0 to 24.4)2.1
F70120150503YesYes 18.2 (5.2 to 29.4)7.9
M70120150503YesYes 22.3 (3.0 to 37.8)14.1
Moderate risk from traditional risk factors, SLE risk factors
F50145240403YesYes 26.0 (8.8 to 40.0)3.0
M50145240403YesYes 31.6 (7.0 to 49.7)7.0
F70145240403YesYes 37.8 (8.2 to 57.9)13.4
M70145240403YesYes 45.0 (4.5 to 68.3)26.2
  • *Risk of a hard event (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke).

  • †Also assuming female, no smoking, no diabetes mellitus and no treatment for hypertension.

  • ‡As calculated at: http://www.cvriskcalculator.com.

  • ACC, American College of Cardiology; AHA, American Heart Association; Chol, total cholesterol; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; SBP, systolic blood pressure; SLEDAI, SLE Disease Activity Index.