Traditional risk factors† | SLE-related risk factors | Estimated 10-year risk | |||||||
Sex | Age | SBP | Chol | HDL | Mean SLEDAI | Low C3 | Lupus anticoagulant | Hopkins Lupus Cohort (% risk, 95% CI) | Framingham‡ (% risk) |
Low risk from traditional risk factors, no SLE risk factors | |||||||||
F | 50 | 120 | 150 | 50 | 0 | No | No | 5.0 (3.1 to 6.8) | 2.8 |
M | 50 | 120 | 150 | 50 | 0 | No | No | 7.3 (3.3 to 11.2) | 5.3 |
F | 70 | 120 | 150 | 50 | 0 | No | No | 9.4 (4.7 to 13.9) | 6.1 |
M | 70 | 120 | 150 | 50 | 0 | No | No | 13.7 (4.9 to 21.7) | 14.1 |
Moderate risk from traditional risk factors, no SLE risk factors | |||||||||
F | 50 | 145 | 240 | 40 | 0 | No | No | 7.9 (4.2 to 11.4) | 9.6 |
M | 50 | 145 | 240 | 40 | 0 | No | No | 11.5 (4.6 to 17.8) | 15.1 |
F | 70 | 145 | 240 | 40 | 0 | No | No | 14.7 (6.6 to 22.1) | 19.7 |
M | 70 | 145 | 240 | 40 | 0 | No | No | 21.0 (7.0 to 32.8) | 36.8 |
Low risk from traditional risk factors, SLE risk factors | |||||||||
F | 50 | 120 | 150 | 50 | 3 | Yes | Yes | 22.3 (12.0 to 31.4) | 2.8 |
M | 50 | 120 | 150 | 50 | 3 | Yes | Yes | 31.2 (13.3 to 45.4) | 5.3 |
F | 70 | 120 | 150 | 50 | 3 | Yes | Yes | 38.7 (16.1 to 55.1) | 6.1 |
M | 70 | 120 | 150 | 50 | 3 | Yes | Yes | 51.6 (17.1 to 71.7) | 14.1 |
Moderate risk from traditional risk factors, SLE risk factors | |||||||||
F | 50 | 145 | 240 | 40 | 3 | Yes | Yes | 33.3 (15.7 to 47.1) | 9.6 |
M | 50 | 145 | 240 | 40 | 3 | Yes | Yes | 45.1 (18.1 to 63.2) | 15.1 |
F | 70 | 145 | 240 | 40 | 3 | Yes | Yes | 54.3 (21.7 to 73.4) | 19.7 |
M | 70 | 145 | 240 | 40 | 3 | Yes | Yes | 68.7 (23.5 to 87.2) | 36.8 |
*Risk of a broad cardiovascular outcome, that is, coronary death, myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, transient ischaemic attack, peripheral artery disease, heart failure.
†Also assuming no smoking, no diabetes and no treatment for hypertension.
‡Calculated at: https://www.framinghamheartstudy.org/fhs-risk-functions/cardiovascular-disease-10-year-risk/.
Chol, total cholesterol; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; SBP, systolic blood pressure; SLEDAI, SLE Disease Activity Index.