Table 3

Estimated 10-year risk of a cardiovascular event (broad definition*) based on the formulas from the Hopkins Lupus Cohort and the Framingham cohort, given various risk factors

Traditional risk factors†SLE-related risk factorsEstimated 10-year risk
SexAgeSBPCholHDLMean SLEDAILow C3Lupus anticoagulantHopkins Lupus Cohort (% risk, 95% CI)Framingham‡
(% risk)
Low risk from traditional risk factors, no SLE risk factors
F50120150500NoNo 5.0 (3.1 to 6.8)2.8
M50120150500NoNo 7.3 (3.3 to 11.2)5.3
F70120150500NoNo 9.4 (4.7 to 13.9)6.1
M70120150500NoNo 13.7 (4.9 to 21.7)14.1
Moderate risk from traditional risk factors, no SLE risk factors
F50145240400NoNo 7.9 (4.2 to 11.4)9.6
M50145240400NoNo 11.5 (4.6 to 17.8)15.1
F70145240400NoNo 14.7 (6.6 to 22.1)19.7
M70145240400NoNo 21.0 (7.0 to 32.8)36.8
Low risk from traditional risk factors, SLE risk factors
F50120150503YesYes 22.3 (12.0 to 31.4)2.8
M50120150503YesYes 31.2 (13.3 to 45.4)5.3
F70120150503YesYes 38.7 (16.1 to 55.1)6.1
M70120150503YesYes 51.6 (17.1 to 71.7)14.1
Moderate risk from traditional risk factors, SLE risk factors
F50145240403YesYes 33.3 (15.7 to 47.1)9.6
M50145240403YesYes 45.1 (18.1 to 63.2)15.1
F70145240403YesYes 54.3 (21.7 to 73.4)19.7
M70145240403YesYes 68.7 (23.5 to 87.2)36.8
  • *Risk of a broad cardiovascular outcome, that is, coronary death, myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina, ischaemic stroke, haemorrhagic stroke, transient ischaemic attack, peripheral artery disease, heart failure.

  • †Also assuming no smoking, no diabetes and no treatment for hypertension.

  • ‡Calculated at: https://www.framinghamheartstudy.org/fhs-risk-functions/cardiovascular-disease-10-year-risk/.

  • Chol, total cholesterol; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; SBP, systolic blood pressure; SLEDAI, SLE Disease Activity Index.